Florida 32026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 3rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 3rd District House forecast currently gives Republican Kat Cammack a 97.1% chance of defeating Democrat Seth Harp. Pollsmax projects Cammack to receive 59.4% of the vote compared with 40.7% for Harp, a projected Republican margin of 18.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 3rd District House election features Democrat Seth Harp and Republican Kat Cammack. Incumbent Representative Kat Cammack is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida's 3rd congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.