Texas 312026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 31st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 31st District House forecast currently gives Republican John Carter a 96.9% chance of defeating Democrat Justin Early. Pollsmax projects Carter to receive 59.4% of the vote compared with 40.7% for Early, a projected Republican margin of 18.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 31st District House election features Democrat Justin Early and Republican John Carter. Incumbent Representative John Carter is seeking reelection to a thirteenth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 31st congressional district by 11.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.