Texas 312026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 31st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 31st District House forecast currently gives Republican John Carter a 98.8% chance of defeating Democrat Justin Early. Pollsmax projects Carter to receive 57.5% of the vote compared with 42.5% for Early, a projected Republican margin of 15 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 31st District House election features Democrat Justin Early and Republican John Carter. Incumbent Representative John Carter is seeking reelection to a thirteenth term. This race is rated as solid Republican. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.