Texas31st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 31st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 31st congressional district House election between Democrat Justin Early and Republican John Carter. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 31st District House election features Democrat Justin Early and Republican John Carter. Incumbent Representative John Carter is seeking reelection to a thirteenth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 31st congressional district by 11.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-31
- Democratic candidate
- Justin Early
- Republican candidate
- John Carter
- Incumbent / open seat
- John Carter
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 40.4% D / 59.6% R
- Projected margin
- R +19.2
- Forecast odds
- 3.0% D / 97.0% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —