South DakotaAt-Large District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 South Dakota At-Large District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for South Dakota's at-large congressional district House election between Democrat Nikki Gronli and Republican Marty Jackley. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 South Dakota at-large District House election features Democrat Nikki Gronli and Republican Marty Jackley. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won South Dakota's at-large congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.