South Dakota AL2026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 South Dakota At-Large District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 South Dakota At-Large District House forecast currently gives Republican Marty Jackley a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Nikki Gronli. Pollsmax projects Jackley to receive 60.6% of the vote compared with 39.5% for Gronli, a projected Republican margin of 21.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 South Dakota at-large District House election features Democrat Nikki Gronli and Republican Marty Jackley. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won South Dakota's at-large congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.