New York12th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 New York 12th District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for New York's 12th congressional district House election between Democrat Micah Lasher and Republican Caroline Shinkle. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 New York 12th District House election features Democrat Micah Lasher and Republican Caroline Shinkle. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New York's 12th congressional district by 29.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.