New York 122026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 12th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 12th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Micah Lasher a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Caroline Shinkle. Pollsmax projects Lasher to receive 79.8% of the vote compared with 20.2% for Shinkle, a projected Democratic margin of 59.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 12th District House election features Democrat Micah Lasher and Republican Caroline Shinkle. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New York's 12th congressional district by 29.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.