Tennessee 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Tennessee 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Tennessee 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Scott DesJarlais a 99% chance of defeating Democrat Victoria Broderick. Pollsmax projects DesJarlais to receive 60.1% of the vote compared with 39.9% for Broderick, a projected Republican margin of 20.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Tennessee 4th District House election features Democrat Victoria Broderick and Republican Scott DesJarlais. Incumbent Representative Scott DesJarlais is seeking reelection to a ninth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee's 4th congressional district by 21.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Tennessee conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.