California 112026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 11th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 11th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Connie Chan a 100% chance of winning this all-Democratic contest against Democrat Scott Wiener. Pollsmax projects Chan to receive 100% of the vote in this all-Democratic race. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 11th District House election features Democrats Connie Chan and Scott Wiener. The seat is open in 2026, following the retirement of Nancy Pelosi. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 11th congressional district by 19.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.