California 32026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 3rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 3rd District House forecast currently gives Democrat Ami Bera a 98.4% chance of defeating Republican Robb Tucker. Pollsmax projects Bera to receive 59.9% of the vote compared with 40.1% for Tucker, a projected Democratic margin of 19.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 3rd District House election features Democrat Ami Bera and Republican Robb Tucker. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera is seeking reelection to a eighth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 3rd congressional district by 3.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.