Pennsylvania 102026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Pennsylvania 10th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Pennsylvania 10th District House forecast currently gives Republican Scott Perry a 53.9% chance of defeating Democrat Janelle Stelson. Pollsmax projects Perry to receive 50.2% of the vote compared with 49.9% for Stelson, a projected Republican margin of 0.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Pennsylvania 10th District House election features Democrat Janelle Stelson and Republican Scott Perry. Incumbent Representative Scott Perry is seeking reelection to a eighth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Pennsylvania seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Pennsylvania's 10th District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.