Pennsylvania10th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Pennsylvania 10th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district House election between Democrat Janelle Stelson and Republican Scott Perry. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Pennsylvania 10th District House election features Democrat Janelle Stelson and Republican Scott Perry. Incumbent Representative Scott Perry is seeking reelection to a eighth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Pennsylvania seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Pennsylvania's 10th District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- PA-10
- Democratic candidate
- Janelle Stelson
- Republican candidate
- Scott Perry
- Incumbent / open seat
- Scott Perry
- Forecast rating
- Tilt R
- Projected vote
- 49.8% D / 50.3% R
- Projected margin
- R +0.5
- Forecast odds
- 43.5% D / 56.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —