Oklahoma 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Oklahoma 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Oklahoma 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Mark Tedford a 98.9% chance of defeating Democrat John Croisant. Pollsmax projects Tedford to receive 60.1% of the vote compared with 40% for Croisant, a projected Republican margin of 20.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Oklahoma 1st District House election features Democrat John Croisant and Republican Mark Tedford. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Oklahoma's 1st congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.