John Croisant
DEMOCRATIC
Tulsa School Board Member
Oklahoma1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Mark Tedford
REPUBLICAN
Oklahoma State House (R)
2022 – Present
2026 Oklahoma 1st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Oklahoma's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat John Croisant and Republican Mark Tedford. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Oklahoma 1st District House election features Democrat John Croisant and Republican Mark Tedford. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Oklahoma's 1st congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- OK-1
- Democratic candidate
- John Croisant
- Republican candidate
- Mark Tedford
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open seat
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 39.9% D / 60.2% R
- Projected margin
- R +20.3
- Forecast odds
- 1.1% D / 98.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —