Alabama 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Alabama 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Alabama 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Jerry Carl a 99.8% chance of defeating Democrat Clyde Jones Jr. Pollsmax projects Carl to receive 64.6% of the vote compared with 35.5% for Jones, a projected Republican margin of 29.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Alabama 1st District House election features Democrat Clyde Jones Jr and Republican Jerry Carl. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Alabama's 1st congressional district by 16.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Alabama conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.