Drew Cox
DEMOCRATIC
Instructor, Purdue University
Indiana4th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Jim Baird*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-IN)
2019 – Present
2026 Indiana 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Indiana's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat Drew Cox and Republican Jim Baird. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Indiana 4th District House election features Democrat Drew Cox and Republican Jim Baird. Incumbent Representative Jim Baird is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Indiana's 4th congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- IN-4
- Democratic candidate
- Drew Cox
- Republican candidate
- Jim Baird
- Incumbent / open seat
- Jim Baird
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 33.0% D / 67.1% R
- Projected margin
- R +34.1
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —