Indiana 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Indiana 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Indiana 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Jim Baird a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Drew Cox. Pollsmax projects Baird to receive 66.9% of the vote compared with 33.2% for Cox, a projected Republican margin of 33.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Indiana 4th District House election features Democrat Drew Cox and Republican Jim Baird. Incumbent Representative Jim Baird is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Indiana's 4th congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.