Missouri 82026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Missouri 8th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Missouri's 8th congressional district House election between Democrat TBD and Republican Jason Smith. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Missouri 8th District House election features Democrat TBD and Republican Jason Smith. Incumbent Representative Jason Smith is seeking reelection to a eighth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Missouri's 8th congressional district by 25.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Missouri conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- MO-8
- Democratic candidate
- TBD
- Republican candidate
- Jason Smith
- Incumbent / open seat
- Jason Smith
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 30.0% D / 70.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +40.0
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —