Michael Chiaradio
DEMOCRATIC
Regenerative Farmer
Mississippi3rd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Michael Guest*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-MS)
2019 – Present
2026 Mississippi 3rd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Mississippi's 3rd congressional district House election between Democrat Michael Chiaradio and Republican Michael Guest. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Mississippi 3rd District House election features Democrat Michael Chiaradio and Republican Michael Guest. Incumbent Representative Michael Guest is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Mississippi's 3rd congressional district by 14.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- MS-3
- Democratic candidate
- Michael Chiaradio
- Republican candidate
- Michael Guest
- Incumbent / open seat
- Michael Guest
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 29.9% D / 70.2% R
- Projected margin
- R +40.3
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —