Mississippi 32026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Mississippi 3rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Mississippi 3rd District House forecast currently gives Republican Michael Guest a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Michael Chiaradio. Pollsmax projects Guest to receive 73.6% of the vote compared with 26.4% for Chiaradio, a projected Republican margin of 47.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Mississippi 3rd District House election features Democrat Michael Chiaradio and Republican Michael Guest. Incumbent Representative Michael Guest is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Mississippi's 3rd congressional district by 14.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.