Florida 192026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 19th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 19th District House forecast currently gives Republican Jim Schwartzel a 99.7% chance of defeating Democrat Victor Arias. Pollsmax projects Schwartzel to receive 64.5% of the vote compared with 35.6% for Arias, a projected Republican margin of 28.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 19th District House election features Democrat Victor Arias and Republican Jim Schwartzel. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida's 19th congressional district by 14.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.