Alabama 22026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Alabama 2nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Alabama 2nd District House forecast currently gives Republican Rhett Marques a 77.6% chance of defeating Democrat Shomari Figures. Pollsmax projects Marques to receive 52.3% of the vote compared with 47.8% for Figures, a projected Republican margin of 4.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Alabama 2nd District House election features Democrat Shomari Figures and Republican Rhett Marques. Incumbent Representative Shomari Figures is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Alabama's 2nd congressional district by 17.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Alabama seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Alabama's 2nd District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Alabama conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.