Florida 172026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 17th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 17th District House forecast currently gives Republican Greg Steube a 95.8% chance of defeating Democrat Matthew Montavon. Pollsmax projects Steube to receive 57.8% of the vote compared with 42.3% for Montavon, a projected Republican margin of 15.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 17th District House election features Democrat Matthew Montavon and Republican Greg Steube. Incumbent Representative Greg Steube is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida's 17th congressional district by 14.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.