Texas 22026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 2nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 2nd District House forecast currently gives Republican Steve Toth a 98.8% chance of defeating Democrat Shaun Finnie. Pollsmax projects Toth to receive 60.2% of the vote compared with 39.9% for Finnie, a projected Republican margin of 20.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 2nd District House election features Democrat Shaun Finnie and Republican Steve Toth. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 2nd congressional district by 12.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.