Arizona 22026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Arizona 2nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Arizona 2nd District House forecast currently gives Republican Eli Crane a 62.4% chance of defeating Democrat Jonathan Nez. Pollsmax projects Crane to receive 51.1% of the vote compared with 49% for Nez, a projected Republican margin of 2.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Arizona 2nd District House election features Democrat Jonathan Nez and Republican Eli Crane. Incumbent Representative Eli Crane is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arizona's 2nd congressional district by 2.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Arizona seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Arizona's 2nd District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.