Jonathan Nez
DEMOCRATIC
President, Navajo Nation
2019 – 2023
Arizona2nd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Eli Crane*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-AZ)
2023 – Present
2026 Arizona 2nd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Arizona's 2nd congressional district House election between Democrat Jonathan Nez and Republican Eli Crane. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Arizona 2nd District House election features Democrat Jonathan Nez and Republican Eli Crane. Incumbent Representative Eli Crane is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arizona's 2nd congressional district by 2.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- AZ-2
- Democratic candidate
- Jonathan Nez
- Republican candidate
- Eli Crane
- Incumbent / open seat
- Eli Crane
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 45.3% D / 54.7% R
- Projected margin
- R +9.4
- Forecast odds
- 14.3% D / 85.7% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —