Doug Jones, 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic candidate
Doug Jones
DEMOCRATIC
US Senate (D-AL)
2018 – 2021
Alabama state flag

Alabama 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

Tommy Tuberville, 2026 Alabama Governor Republican candidate
Tommy Tuberville
REPUBLICAN
US Senate (R-AL)
2021 – Present

2026 Alabama Governor Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Alabama's Governor election between Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Tommy Tuberville. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 Alabama governor election features Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Tommy Tuberville. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Alabama by 30.5%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Alabama has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.

Year
2026
Race
Governor
State
Alabama
Democratic candidate
Doug Jones
Republican candidate
Tommy Tuberville
Incumbent / open seat
Open Seat
Forecast rating
Solid R
Projected vote
35.3% D / 64.7% R
Projected margin
R +29.4
Forecast odds
1.8% D / 98.2% R
Forecast last updated
12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
Polling average
36.0% D / 51.0% R
Polling average margin
R +15.0
Polling last updated
12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
Polls included
1
Latest poll
Cygnal (R) — November 13, 2025