Alabama 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Alabama Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Alabama Governor forecast currently gives Republican Tommy Tuberville a 98.4% chance of defeating Democrat Doug Jones. Pollsmax projects Tuberville to receive 62.5% of the vote compared with 37.5% for Jones, a projected Republican margin of 25 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Alabama governor election features Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Tommy Tuberville. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Alabama by 30.5%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Alabama has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.