Alabama 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 Alabama Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Alabama's Governor election between Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Tommy Tuberville. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Alabama governor election features Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Tommy Tuberville. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Alabama by 30.5%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Alabama has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- Alabama
- Democratic candidate
- Doug Jones
- Republican candidate
- Tommy Tuberville
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open Seat
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 35.3% D / 64.7% R
- Projected margin
- R +29.4
- Forecast odds
- 1.8% D / 98.2% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- 36.0% D / 51.0% R
- Polling average margin
- R +15.0
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polls included
- 1
- Latest poll
- Cygnal (R) — November 13, 2025