Alabama 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Alabama Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Alabama Governor forecast currently gives Republican Tommy Tuberville a 93.9% chance of defeating Democrat Doug Jones. Pollsmax projects Tuberville to receive 56.3% of the vote compared with 43.8% for Jones, a projected Republican margin of 12.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Alabama governor election features Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Tommy Tuberville. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Alabama by 30.5%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. The race will test whether Jones can make any inroads in one of the most Republican states in the country or whether Tuberville can keep Alabama safely in the GOP column. Alabama is not expected to be one of the cycle's top governor battlegrounds, but the race remains part of the Republican path to defending their national governorship advantage.