Hawaii 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Hawaii Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Hawaii Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Josh Green a 99.1% chance of defeating Republican Gary Cordery. Pollsmax projects Green to receive 65.2% of the vote compared with 34.9% for Cordery, a projected Democratic margin of 30.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Hawaii governor election features Democrat Josh Green and Republican Gary Cordery. Incumbent governor Josh Green is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2022. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Hawaii by 22.9%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Hawaii voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.