Hawaii 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 Hawaii Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Hawaii's Governor election between Democrat Josh Green and Republican Gary Cordery. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Hawaii governor election features Democrat Josh Green and Republican Gary Cordery. Incumbent governor Josh Green is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2022. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Hawaii by 22.9%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Hawaii voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- Hawaii
- Democratic candidate
- Josh Green
- Republican candidate
- Gary Cordery
- Incumbent / open seat
- Josh Green
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 65.1% D / 35.0% R
- Projected margin
- D +30.1
- Forecast odds
- 99.0% D / 1.0% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
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