Illinois 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Illinois Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Illinois Governor forecast currently gives Democrat JB Pritzker a 97.6% chance of defeating Republican Darren Bailey. Pollsmax projects Pritzker to receive 60.4% of the vote compared with 39.6% for Bailey, a projected Democratic margin of 20.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Illinois governor election features Democrat JB Pritzker and Republican Darren Bailey. Incumbent governor JB Pritzker is seeking reelection to a third term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2019. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Illinois by 10.9%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Illinois voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.