Illinois 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 Illinois Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Illinois' Governor election between Democrat JB Pritzker and Republican Darren Bailey. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Illinois governor election features Democrat JB Pritzker and Republican Darren Bailey. Incumbent governor JB Pritzker is seeking reelection to a third term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2019. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Illinois by 10.9%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Illinois voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- Illinois
- Democratic candidate
- JB Pritzker
- Republican candidate
- Darren Bailey
- Incumbent / open seat
- JB Pritzker
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 60.4% D / 39.7% R
- Projected margin
- D +20.7
- Forecast odds
- 97.5% D / 2.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- 54.0% D / 34.0% R
- Polling average margin
- D +20.0
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polls included
- 1
- Latest poll
- Victory Insights (R) — November 24, 2025