Illinois 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Illinois Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Illinois Governor forecast currently gives Democrat JB Pritzker a 99.5% chance of defeating Republican Darren Bailey. Pollsmax projects Pritzker to receive 61.2% of the vote compared with 38.9% for Bailey, a projected Democratic margin of 22.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Illinois governor election features Democrat JB Pritzker and Republican Darren Bailey. Incumbent Governor JB Pritzker is seeking reelection to a third term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2019. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Illinois by 10.9%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. The race will test whether Pritzker can win another comfortable term or whether Bailey can improve on Republican performance in a strongly Democratic state. Illinois is expected to remain safely Democratic as Democrats defend one of their largest-state governorships.