Maryland 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Maryland Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Maryland Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Wes Moore a 99.6% chance of defeating Republican Dan Cox. Pollsmax projects Moore to receive 66.2% of the vote compared with 33.8% for Cox, a projected Democratic margin of 32.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Maryland governor election features Democrat Wes Moore and Republican Dan Cox. Incumbent governor Wes Moore is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2023. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Maryland by 28.5%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Maryland voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.