Maryland 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Maryland Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Maryland Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Wes Moore a 99.8% chance of defeating Republican Dan Cox. Pollsmax projects Moore to receive 67.5% of the vote compared with 32.6% for Cox, a projected Democratic margin of 34.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Maryland governor election features Democrat Wes Moore and Republican Dan Cox. Incumbent Governor Wes Moore is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2023. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Maryland by a wide margin, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. The race will test whether Cox can make Maryland more competitive for Republicans or whether Moore can win another decisive victory in a heavily Democratic state. Maryland is expected to remain safely Democratic on the 2026 governor map.