Democrats
Wes Moore*
DEMOCRATIC
Governor (D-MD)
2023 – Present
Maryland state flag

Maryland 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

Republicans
Dan Cox
REPUBLICAN
Maryland State House (R)
2019 – 2023

2026 Maryland Governor Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Maryland's Governor election between Democrat Wes Moore and Republican Dan Cox. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 Maryland governor election features Democrat Wes Moore and Republican Dan Cox. Incumbent governor Wes Moore is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2023. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Maryland by 28.5%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Maryland voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.

Year
2026
Race
Governor
State
Maryland
Democratic candidate
Wes Moore
Republican candidate
Dan Cox
Incumbent / open seat
Wes Moore
Forecast rating
Solid D
Projected vote
66.2% D / 33.9% R
Projected margin
D +32.3
Forecast odds
99.5% D / 0.5% R
Forecast last updated
12:00 AM on July 2, 2026

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