New Mexico 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 New Mexico Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New Mexico Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Deb Haaland a 90.4% chance of defeating Republican Gregg Hull. Pollsmax projects Haaland to receive 55.2% of the vote compared with 44.9% for Hull, a projected Democratic margin of 10.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New Mexico governor election features Democrat Deb Haaland and Republican Gregg Hull. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New Mexico by 6.0%, and Democrats are favored to retain the state's governorship in 2026. The race will test whether Haaland can keep New Mexico in Democratic hands or whether Hull can make the open-seat contest more competitive than recent statewide results suggest. New Mexico remains a Democratic-leaning governor race, but open seats can still draw national attention.