Democrats
Deb Haaland
DEMOCRATIC
US Secretary of the Interior
2021 – 2025
New Mexico state flag

New Mexico 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

Republicans
Gregg Hull
REPUBLICAN
Rio Rancho, NM Mayor
2014 – 2026

2026 New Mexico Governor Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for New Mexico's Governor election between Democrat Deb Haaland and Republican Gregg Hull. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 New Mexico governor election features Democrat Deb Haaland and Republican Gregg Hull. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New Mexico by 6.0%, and Democrats are expected to retain the state's governorship in 2026. New Mexico has leaned Democratic in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can still draw national attention when control of the governorship is at stake.

Year
2026
Race
Governor
State
New Mexico
Democratic candidate
Deb Haaland
Republican candidate
Gregg Hull
Incumbent / open seat
Open Seat
Forecast rating
Likely D
Projected vote
55.3% D / 44.8% R
Projected margin
D +10.5
Forecast odds
85.8% D / 14.2% R
Forecast last updated
12:00 AM on July 2, 2026

No General Election Polls Yet