New York 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 New York Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Kathy Hochul a 96.2% chance of defeating Republican Bruce Blakeman. Pollsmax projects Hochul to receive 55.9% of the vote compared with 44.2% for Blakeman, a projected Democratic margin of 11.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York governor election features Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican Bruce Blakeman. Incumbent governor Kathy Hochul is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2021. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New York by 12.4%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. New York voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.