New York 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 New York Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Kathy Hochul a 97% chance of defeating Republican Bruce Blakeman. Pollsmax projects Hochul to receive 57% of the vote compared with 43% for Blakeman, a projected Democratic margin of 14 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York governor election features Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican Bruce Blakeman. Incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul is seeking reelection to a second full term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2021. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New York, and Democrats are expected to retain the state's governorship in 2026. The race will test whether Hochul can win more comfortably than she did in her previous campaign or whether Blakeman can make New York more competitive for Republicans. New York remains a Democratic-leaning race, but its recent statewide margins make it worth watching.