Oklahoma 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Oklahoma Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Oklahoma Governor forecast currently gives Republican Mike Mazzei a 98.3% chance of defeating Democrat Cyndi Munson. Pollsmax projects Mazzei to receive 65.2% of the vote compared with 34.9% for Munson, a projected Republican margin of 30.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Oklahoma governor election features Democrat Cyndi Munson and Republican Mike Mazzei. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Oklahoma by 34.3%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Oklahoma has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.