Oklahoma 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Oklahoma Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Oklahoma Governor forecast currently gives Republican Mike Mazzei a 90.9% chance of defeating Democrat Cyndi Munson. Pollsmax projects Mazzei to receive 55.9% of the vote compared with 44.2% for Munson, a projected Republican margin of 11.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Oklahoma governor election features Democrat Cyndi Munson and Republican Mike Mazzei. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Oklahoma by 34.3%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. The race will test whether Munson can make any inroads in one of the most Republican states in the country or whether Mazzei can keep Oklahoma safely in GOP hands. Oklahoma is expected to remain safely Republican on the 2026 governor map.