Oregon 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Oregon Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Oregon Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Tina Kotek a 78.7% chance of defeating Republican Christine Drazan. Pollsmax projects Kotek to receive 52.8% of the vote compared with 47.3% for Drazan, a projected Democratic margin of 5.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Oregon governor election features Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan. Incumbent Governor Tina Kotek is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2023. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Oregon, and Democrats are favored to retain the state's governorship in 2026. The race will test whether Kotek can hold a Democratic governorship in a state where recent governor races have been competitive or whether Drazan can make another serious Republican push. Oregon remains a Democratic-leaning race, but it is more competitive than many other blue-state governorships.