Oregon 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 Oregon Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Oregon's Governor election between Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Oregon governor election features Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan. Incumbent governor Tina Kotek is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2023. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Oregon by 14.3%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Oregon voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- Oregon
- Democratic candidate
- Tina Kotek
- Republican candidate
- Christine Drazan
- Incumbent / open seat
- Tina Kotek
- Forecast rating
- Likely D
- Projected vote
- 54.3% D / 45.7% R
- Projected margin
- D +8.6
- Forecast odds
- 85.6% D / 14.4% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- 45.9% D / 42.7% R
- Polling average margin
- D +3.1
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polls included
- 2
- Latest poll
- Hoffman Research Group (R) — May 12, 2026