Oregon 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Oregon Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Oregon Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Tina Kotek a 84% chance of defeating Republican Christine Drazan. Pollsmax projects Kotek to receive 53.4% of the vote compared with 46.6% for Drazan, a projected Democratic margin of 6.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Oregon governor election features Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan. Incumbent governor Tina Kotek is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2023. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Oregon by 14.3%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Oregon voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.