Pennsylvania 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Pennsylvania Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Pennsylvania Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Josh Shapiro a 99.7% chance of defeating Republican Stacy Garrity. Pollsmax projects Shapiro to receive 61.6% of the vote compared with 38.4% for Garrity, a projected Democratic margin of 23.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Pennsylvania governor election features Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Stacy Garrity. Incumbent Governor Josh Shapiro is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2023. In 2024, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by 1.7%, but Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. The race will test whether Shapiro can hold his strong statewide coalition in one of the nation's most important battlegrounds or whether Garrity can make the race more competitive for Republicans. Pennsylvania is a major governor race because of its size, battleground status, and national political importance.