Pennsylvania 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 Pennsylvania Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Pennsylvania's Governor election between Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Stacy Garrity. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Pennsylvania governor election features Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Stacy Garrity. Incumbent governor Josh Shapiro is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2023. In 2024, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by 1.7%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Pennsylvania voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- Pennsylvania
- Democratic candidate
- Josh Shapiro
- Republican candidate
- Stacy Garrity
- Incumbent / open seat
- Josh Shapiro
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 61.7% D / 38.4% R
- Projected margin
- D +23.3
- Forecast odds
- 99.7% D / 0.3% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- 52.9% D / 30.4% R
- Polling average margin
- D +22.5
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polls included
- 8
- Latest poll
- Bravo/Scrapple — June 25, 2026