South Carolina 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 South Carolina Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 South Carolina Governor forecast currently gives Republican Alan Wilson a 97.1% chance of defeating Democrat Jermaine Johnson. Pollsmax projects Wilson to receive 60.1% of the vote compared with 39.9% for Johnson, a projected Republican margin of 20.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 South Carolina governor election features Democrat Jermaine Johnson and Republican Alan Wilson. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won South Carolina by 17.9%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. South Carolina has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.