South Carolina 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 South Carolina Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for South Carolina's Governor election between Democrat Jermaine Johnson and Republican Alan Wilson. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 South Carolina governor election features Democrat Jermaine Johnson and Republican Alan Wilson. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won South Carolina by 17.9%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. South Carolina has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- South Carolina
- Democratic candidate
- Jermaine Johnson
- Republican candidate
- Alan Wilson
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open Seat
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 39.3% D / 60.7% R
- Projected margin
- R +21.4
- Forecast odds
- 3.2% D / 96.8% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
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