South Carolina 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 South Carolina Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 South Carolina Governor forecast currently gives Republican Alan Wilson a 92.5% chance of defeating Democrat Jermaine Johnson. Pollsmax projects Wilson to receive 55.4% of the vote compared with 44.7% for Johnson, a projected Republican margin of 10.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 South Carolina governor election features Democrat Jermaine Johnson and Republican Alan Wilson. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won South Carolina by 17.9%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. The race will test whether Johnson can make South Carolina more competitive than recent statewide results suggest or whether Wilson can keep the governorship safely in Republican hands. South Carolina is not expected to be one of Democrats' easiest pickup targets, but open-seat races can become more important if the national environment shifts.