Tennessee 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Tennessee Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Tennessee Governor forecast currently gives Republican Marsha Blackburn a 99.1% chance of defeating Democrat Jerri Green. Pollsmax projects Blackburn to receive 61.9% of the vote compared with 38.1% for Green, a projected Republican margin of 23.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Tennessee governor election features Democrat Jerri Green and Republican Marsha Blackburn. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee by 29.7%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Tennessee has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.