Tennessee 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 Tennessee Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Tennessee's Governor election between Democrat Jerri Green and Republican Marsha Blackburn. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Tennessee governor election features Democrat Jerri Green and Republican Marsha Blackburn. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee by 29.7%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Tennessee has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- Tennessee
- Democratic candidate
- Jerri Green
- Republican candidate
- Marsha Blackburn
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open Seat
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 35.1% D / 65.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +29.9
- Forecast odds
- 0.9% D / 99.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- 27.9% D / 49.9% R
- Polling average margin
- R +22.0
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polls included
- 2
- Latest poll
- Targoz Market Research — April 27, 2026