Vermont 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Vermont Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Vermont Governor forecast currently gives Republican Phil Scott a 89.6% chance of defeating Democrat Amanda Janoo. Pollsmax projects Scott to receive 54.5% of the vote compared with 45.5% for Janoo, a projected Republican margin of 9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Vermont governor election features Democrat Amanda Janoo and Republican Phil Scott. Incumbent Governor Phil Scott is seeking reelection to a sixth two-year term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2017. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Vermont by a landslide, but Republicans are expected to retain the state's governorship in 2026. The race will test whether Scott can once again outrun Vermont's deep Democratic lean or whether Democrats can make the governorship more competitive. Vermont remains an unusual race because its federal partisanship and gubernatorial voting patterns point in opposite directions.