Vermont 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 Vermont Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Vermont's Governor election between Democrat Aly Richards and Republican Phil Scott. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Vermont governor election features Democrat Aly Richards and Republican Phil Scott. Incumbent governor Phil Scott is seeking reelection to a fifth term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2017. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Vermont by 31.2%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Vermont voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- Vermont
- Democratic candidate
- Aly Richards
- Republican candidate
- Phil Scott
- Incumbent / open seat
- Phil Scott
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 33.4% D / 66.7% R
- Projected margin
- R +33.3
- Forecast odds
- 0.5% D / 99.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 1, 2026
- Polling average
- 25.0% D / 41.0% R
- Polling average margin
- R +16.0
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 1, 2026
- Polls included
- 1
- Latest poll
- University of New Hampshire — June 23, 2026
No General Election Polls Yet