Vermont 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Vermont Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Vermont Governor forecast currently gives Republican Phil Scott a 99.7% chance of defeating Democrat Amanda Janoo. Pollsmax projects Scott to receive 65.7% of the vote compared with 34.3% for Janoo, a projected Republican margin of 31.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Vermont governor election features Democrat Amanda Janoo and Republican Phil Scott. Incumbent governor Phil Scott is seeking reelection to a fifth term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2017. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Vermont by 31.2%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Vermont voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.