Colorado 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Colorado Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Colorado Senate forecast currently gives Democrat John Hickenlooper a 94.8% chance of defeating Republican Mark Baisley. Pollsmax projects Hickenlooper to receive 58.4% of the vote compared with 41.6% for Baisley, a projected Democratic margin of 16.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Colorado Senate election features Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican Mark Baisley. Incumbent senator John Hickenlooper is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the US Senate since 2021. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Colorado by 11.0%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.