Idaho 2026 SENATE FORECAST
2026 Idaho Senate Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Idaho's Senate election between Democrat David Roth and Republican Jim Risch. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Idaho Senate election features Democrat David Roth and Republican Jim Risch. Incumbent senator Jim Risch is seeking reelection to a fourth term, having served in the US Senate since 2009. In 2024, Donald Trump won Idaho by 36.0%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- Idaho
- Democratic candidate
- David Roth
- Republican candidate
- Jim Risch
- Incumbent / open seat
- Jim Risch
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 31.7% D / 68.4% R
- Projected margin
- R +36.7
- Forecast odds
- 0.3% D / 99.7% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- 17.0% D / 53.0% R
- Polling average margin
- R +36.0
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polls included
- 1
- Latest poll
- Peak Insights (R) — June 7, 2026
No General Election Polls Yet