Idaho 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Idaho Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Idaho Senate forecast currently gives Republican Jim Risch a 99.7% chance of defeating independent Todd Achilles. Pollsmax projects Risch to receive 60.4% of the vote compared with 39.6% for Achilles, a projected Republican margin of 20.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Idaho Senate election features Democrat David Roth and Republican Jim Risch. Incumbent Senator Jim Risch is seeking reelection to a fourth full term, having served in the US Senate since 2009. In 2024, Donald Trump won Idaho by a massive margin, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether Roth can improve on recent Democratic performances in Idaho or whether Risch can win another comfortable term. Idaho is expected to remain safely Republican as the GOP works to preserve control of the US Senate.