Idaho 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Idaho Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Idaho Senate forecast currently gives Republican Jim Risch a 99.7% chance of defeating independent Todd Achilles. Pollsmax projects Risch to receive 61.4% of the vote compared with 38.7% for Achilles, a projected Republican margin of 22.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Idaho Senate election features independent Todd Achilles and Republican Jim Risch. Incumbent senator Jim Risch is seeking reelection to a fourth term, having served in the US Senate since 2009. In 2024, Donald Trump won Idaho by 36.0%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.