Illinois 2026 SENATE FORECAST

Don Tracy

REPUBLICAN

Chair, Illinois Republican Party

2021 – 2024

2026 Illinois Senate Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Illinois' Senate election between Democrat Juliana Stratton and Republican Don Tracy. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 Illinois Senate election features Democrat Juliana Stratton and Republican Don Tracy. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Illinois by 10.9%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. Illinois has leaned Democratic in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can still draw national attention when control of the Senate seat is at stake.

Year: 2026
Race: Senate
State: Illinois
Democratic candidate: Juliana Stratton
Republican candidate: Don Tracy
Incumbent / open seat: Open Seat
Forecast rating: Solid D
Projected vote: 59.9% D / 40.2% R
Projected margin: D +19.7
Forecast odds: 96.2% D / 3.8% R
Forecast last updated: 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026

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