Kentucky 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Kentucky Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Kentucky Senate forecast currently gives Republican Andy Barr a 98% chance of defeating Democrat Charles Booker. Pollsmax projects Barr to receive 60.4% of the vote compared with 39.6% for Booker, a projected Republican margin of 20.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Kentucky Senate election features Democrat Charles Booker and Republican Andy Barr. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kentucky by 30.5%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. Kentucky has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.