Kentucky 2026 SENATE FORECAST

Andy Barr

REPUBLICAN

US House of Representatives (R-KY)

2013 – Present

2026 Kentucky Senate Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Kentucky's Senate election between Democrat Charles Booker and Republican Andy Barr. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 Kentucky Senate election features Democrat Charles Booker and Republican Andy Barr. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kentucky by 30.5%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. Kentucky has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.

Year: 2026
Race: Senate
State: Kentucky
Democratic candidate: Charles Booker
Republican candidate: Andy Barr
Incumbent / open seat: Open Seat
Forecast rating: Solid R
Projected vote: 39.4% D / 60.6% R
Projected margin: R +21.2
Forecast odds: 2.8% D / 97.2% R
Forecast last updated: 12:00 AM on August 10, 2026
Polling average: 38.0% D / 49.0% R
Polling average margin: R +11.0
Polling last updated: 12:00 AM on August 10, 2026
Polls included: 1
Latest poll: Public Policy Polling (D) — December 19, 2025