Louisiana 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Louisiana Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Louisiana Senate forecast currently gives Republican Julia Letlow a 97.4% chance of defeating Democrat Jamie Davis. Pollsmax projects Letlow to receive 59.8% of the vote compared with 40.2% for Davis, a projected Republican margin of 19.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Louisiana Senate election features Democrat Jamie Davis and Republican Julia Letlow. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Louisiana by 22.0%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. Louisiana has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.