Massachusetts 2026 SENATE FORECAST
2026 Massachusetts Senate Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Massachusetts' Senate election between Democrat Ed Markey and Republican John Deaton. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Massachusetts Senate election features Democrat Ed Markey and Republican John Deaton. Incumbent senator Ed Markey is seeking reelection to a third term, having served in the US Senate since 2013. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Massachusetts by 24.9%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- Massachusetts
- Democratic candidate
- Ed Markey
- Republican candidate
- John Deaton
- Incumbent / open seat
- Ed Markey
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 67.7% D / 32.3% R
- Projected margin
- D +35.4
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- 54.1% D / 31.0% R
- Polling average margin
- D +23.1
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polls included
- 7
- Latest poll
- University of New Hampshire — June 23, 2026