Massachusetts 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Massachusetts Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Massachusetts Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Ed Markey a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican John Deaton. Pollsmax projects Markey to receive 66.7% of the vote compared with 33.4% for Deaton, a projected Democratic margin of 33.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Massachusetts Senate election features Democrat Ed Markey and Republican John Deaton. Incumbent senator Ed Markey is seeking reelection to a third term, having served in the US Senate since 2013. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Massachusetts by 24.9%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.