Mississippi 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Mississippi Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Mississippi Senate forecast currently gives Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith a 92.4% chance of defeating Democrat Scott Colom. Pollsmax projects Hyde-Smith to receive 55.5% of the vote compared with 44.6% for Colom, a projected Republican margin of 10.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Mississippi Senate election features Democrat Scott Colom and Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith. Incumbent senator Cindy Hyde-Smith is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the US Senate since 2018. In 2024, Donald Trump won Mississippi by 22.9%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.