New Jersey 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 New Jersey Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New Jersey Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Cory Booker a 97% chance of defeating Republican Justin Murphy. Pollsmax projects Booker to receive 59.6% of the vote compared with 40.4% for Murphy, a projected Democratic margin of 19.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New Jersey Senate election features Democrat Cory Booker and Republican Justin Murphy. Incumbent senator Cory Booker is seeking reelection to a third term, having served in the US Senate since 2013. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New Jersey by 5.9%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.