New Mexico 2026 SENATE FORECAST
2026 New Mexico Senate Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for New Mexico's Senate election between Democrat Ben Ray Luján and Republican Larry Marker. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 New Mexico Senate election features Democrat Ben Ray Luján and Republican Larry Marker. Incumbent senator Ben Ray Luján is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the US Senate since 2021. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New Mexico by 6.0%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- New Mexico
- Democratic candidate
- Ben Ray Luján
- Republican candidate
- Larry Marker
- Incumbent / open seat
- Ben Ray Luján
- Forecast rating
- Likely D
- Projected vote
- 55.8% D / 44.2% R
- Projected margin
- D +11.6
- Forecast odds
- 91.9% D / 8.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
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