New Mexico 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 New Mexico Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New Mexico Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Ben Ray Luján a 98.1% chance of defeating Republican Larry Marker. Pollsmax projects Luján to receive 59% of the vote compared with 41.1% for Marker, a projected Democratic margin of 17.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New Mexico Senate election features Democrat Ben Ray Luján and Republican Nella Domenici. Incumbent Senator Ben Ray Luján is seeking reelection to a second full term, having served in the US Senate since 2021. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New Mexico, and Democrats are favored to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether Domenici can make New Mexico more competitive in a midterm environment or whether Luján can hold the seat comfortably. New Mexico remains part of the Democratic defensive map, even if it is not expected to be one of the cycle's top Republican pickup opportunities.