New Mexico 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 New Mexico Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New Mexico Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Ben Ray Luján a 92.9% chance of defeating Republican Larry Marker. Pollsmax projects Luján to receive 56.5% of the vote compared with 43.6% for Marker, a projected Democratic margin of 12.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New Mexico Senate election features Democrat Ben Ray Luján and Republican Larry Marker. Incumbent senator Ben Ray Luján is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the US Senate since 2021. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New Mexico by 6.0%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.