Oklahoma 2026 SENATE FORECAST
2026 Oklahoma Senate Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Oklahoma's Senate election between Democrat N'Kiyla Thomas and Republican Kevin Hern. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Oklahoma Senate election features Democrat N'Kiyla Thomas and Republican Kevin Hern. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Oklahoma by 34.3%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. Oklahoma has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- Oklahoma
- Democratic candidate
- N'Kiyla Thomas
- Republican candidate
- Kevin Hern
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open Seat
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 35.7% D / 64.4% R
- Projected margin
- R +28.7
- Forecast odds
- 1.5% D / 98.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
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