Oklahoma 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Oklahoma Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Oklahoma Senate forecast currently gives Republican Kevin Hern a 98.7% chance of defeating Democrat N'Kiyla Thomas. Pollsmax projects Hern to receive 64.9% of the vote compared with 35.2% for Thomas, a projected Republican margin of 29.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Oklahoma Senate election features Democrat N'Kiyla Thomas and Republican Kevin Hern. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Oklahoma by 34.3%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. Oklahoma has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.