Oregon 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Oregon Senate Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Oregon's Senate election between Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican David Brock Smith. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 Oregon Senate election features Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican David Brock Smith. Incumbent senator Jeff Merkley is seeking reelection to a fourth term, having served in the US Senate since 2009. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Oregon by 14.3%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.