Oregon 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Oregon Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Oregon Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Jeff Merkley a 98% chance of defeating Republican David Brock Smith. Pollsmax projects Merkley to receive 60.5% of the vote compared with 39.6% for Smith, a projected Democratic margin of 20.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Oregon Senate election features Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican David Brock Smith. Incumbent senator Jeff Merkley is seeking reelection to a fourth term, having served in the US Senate since 2009. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Oregon by 14.3%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.