Rhode Island 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Rhode Island Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Rhode Island Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Jack Reed a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Raymond McKay. Pollsmax projects Reed to receive 66.7% of the vote compared with 33.4% for McKay, a projected Democratic margin of 33.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Rhode Island Senate election features Democrat Jack Reed and Republican Raymond McKay. Incumbent Senator Jack Reed is seeking reelection to a sixth full term, having served in the US Senate since 1997. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Rhode Island by 13.8%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether McKay can cut into Democratic margins in a deep-blue state or whether Reed can secure another decisive victory. Rhode Island is expected to remain safely Democratic as the party works to defend its seats in the US Senate.