Rhode Island 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Rhode Island Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Rhode Island Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Jack Reed a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Raymond McKay. Pollsmax projects Reed to receive 66.4% of the vote compared with 33.7% for McKay, a projected Democratic margin of 32.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Rhode Island Senate election features Democrat Jack Reed and Republican Raymond McKay. Incumbent senator Jack Reed is seeking reelection to a sixth term, having served in the US Senate since 1997. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Rhode Island by 13.8%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.