South Carolina 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 South Carolina Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 South Carolina Senate forecast currently gives Republican Darline Graham a 79.5% chance of defeating Democrat Annie Andrews. Pollsmax projects Graham to receive 52.4% of the vote compared with 47.6% for Andrews, a projected Republican margin of 4.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 South Carolina Senate election features Democrat Annie Andrews and Republican Darline Graham. Incumbent Senator Darline Graham is seeking election to a full term after being appointed to the seat following Lindsey Graham's death. In 2024, Donald Trump won South Carolina by 17.9%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether Andrews can make South Carolina more competitive than its recent federal results suggest or whether Graham can hold together the state's Republican coalition.