South Carolina 2026 SENATE FORECAST
2026 South Carolina Senate Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for South Carolina's Senate election between Democrat Annie Andrews and Republican Lindsey Graham. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 South Carolina Senate election features Democrat Annie Andrews and Republican Lindsey Graham. Incumbent senator Lindsey Graham is seeking reelection to a fifth term, having served in the US Senate since 2003. In 2024, Donald Trump won South Carolina by 17.9%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- South Carolina
- Democratic candidate
- Annie Andrews
- Republican candidate
- Lindsey Graham
- Incumbent / open seat
- Lindsey Graham
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 45.2% D / 54.9% R
- Projected margin
- R +9.7
- Forecast odds
- 9.7% D / 90.3% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- 41.3% D / 48.7% R
- Polling average margin
- R +7.4
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polls included
- 3
- Latest poll
- Impact Research (D) — June 22, 2026