South Carolina 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 South Carolina Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 South Carolina Senate forecast currently gives Republican Darline Graham a 93.4% chance of defeating Democrat Annie Andrews. Pollsmax projects Graham to receive 55.1% of the vote compared with 44.9% for Andrews, a projected Republican margin of 10.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 South Carolina Senate election features Democrat Annie Andrews and Republican Darline Graham. Incumbent senator Darline Graham is seeking reelection to a first term, having served in the US Senate since 2026. In 2024, Donald Trump won South Carolina by 17.9%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.