Tennessee 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Tennessee Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Tennessee Senate forecast currently gives Republican Bill Hagerty a 99.3% chance of defeating Democrat Marquita Bradshaw. Pollsmax projects Hagerty to receive 65.1% of the vote compared with 35% for Bradshaw, a projected Republican margin of 30.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Tennessee Senate election features Democrat Marquita Bradshaw and Republican Bill Hagerty. Incumbent senator Bill Hagerty is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the US Senate since 2021. In 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee by 29.7%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.