Tennessee 2026 SENATE FORECAST
2026 Tennessee Senate Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Tennessee's Senate election between Democrat Marquita Bradshaw and Republican Bill Hagerty. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Tennessee Senate election features Democrat Marquita Bradshaw and Republican Bill Hagerty. Incumbent senator Bill Hagerty is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the US Senate since 2021. In 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee by 29.7%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- Tennessee
- Democratic candidate
- Marquita Bradshaw
- Republican candidate
- Bill Hagerty
- Incumbent / open seat
- Bill Hagerty
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 35.1% D / 65.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +29.9
- Forecast odds
- 0.7% D / 99.3% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
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