Virginia 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Virginia Senate Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Virginia's Senate election between Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Bert Mizusawa. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 Virginia Senate election features Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Bert Mizusawa. Incumbent senator Mark Warner is seeking reelection to a fourth term, having served in the US Senate since 2009. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Virginia by 5.8%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.