Virginia 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Virginia Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Virginia Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Mark Warner a 98.7% chance of defeating Republican Bert Mizusawa. Pollsmax projects Warner to receive 60.2% of the vote compared with 39.9% for Mizusawa, a projected Democratic margin of 20.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Virginia Senate election features Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Bert Mizusawa. Incumbent Senator Mark Warner is seeking reelection to a fourth full term, having served in the US Senate since 2009. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Virginia, and Democrats are expected to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether Mizusawa can make Virginia competitive again at the federal level or whether Warner can hold the seat comfortably. Virginia remains an important Democratic hold as the party tries to protect its path to a US Senate majority.