Virginia 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Virginia Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Virginia Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Mark Warner a 96.4% chance of defeating Republican Bert Mizusawa. Pollsmax projects Warner to receive 58.4% of the vote compared with 41.7% for Mizusawa, a projected Democratic margin of 16.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Virginia Senate election features Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Bert Mizusawa. Incumbent senator Mark Warner is seeking reelection to a fourth term, having served in the US Senate since 2009. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Virginia by 5.8%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.