West Virginia 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 West Virginia Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 West Virginia Senate forecast currently gives Republican Shelley Moore Capito a 99.8% chance of defeating Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson. Pollsmax projects Capito to receive 68% of the vote compared with 32.1% for Anderson, a projected Republican margin of 35.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 West Virginia Senate election features Democrat TBD and Republican Shelley Moore Capito. Incumbent Senator Shelley Moore Capito is seeking reelection to a third full term, having served in the US Senate since 2015. In 2024, Donald Trump won West Virginia by one of the largest margins in the country, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can find any opening in a state that has moved sharply right or whether Capito can keep West Virginia safely in the GOP column. West Virginia is expected to remain safely Republican as the GOP works to preserve control of the US Senate.