West Virginia 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 West Virginia Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 West Virginia Senate forecast currently gives Republican Shelley Moore Capito a 99.8% chance of defeating Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson. Pollsmax projects Capito to receive 70.8% of the vote compared with 29.2% for Anderson, a projected Republican margin of 41.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 West Virginia Senate election features Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson and Republican Shelley Moore Capito. Incumbent senator Shelley Moore Capito is seeking reelection to a third term, having served in the US Senate since 2015. In 2024, Donald Trump won West Virginia by 41.9%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.