New Hampshire 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 New Hampshire Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for New Hampshire's Governor election between Democrat Cinde Warmington and Republican Kelly Ayotte. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 New Hampshire governor election features Democrat Cinde Warmington and Republican Kelly Ayotte. Incumbent governor Kelly Ayotte is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2025. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New Hampshire by 2.8%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. New Hampshire voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- New Hampshire
- Democratic candidate
- Cinde Warmington
- Republican candidate
- Kelly Ayotte
- Incumbent / open seat
- Kelly Ayotte
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 44.9% D / 55.2% R
- Projected margin
- R +10.3
- Forecast odds
- 7.8% D / 92.2% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- 37.9% D / 45.2% R
- Polling average margin
- R +7.3
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polls included
- 4
- Latest poll
- Saint Anselm College — June 25, 2026