New Hampshire 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 New Hampshire Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New Hampshire Governor forecast currently gives Republican Kelly Ayotte a 93.8% chance of defeating Democrat Cinde Warmington. Pollsmax projects Ayotte to receive 55.2% of the vote compared with 44.8% for Warmington, a projected Republican margin of 10.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New Hampshire governor election features Democrat Cinde Warmington and Republican Kelly Ayotte. Incumbent governor Kelly Ayotte is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2025. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New Hampshire by 2.8%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. New Hampshire voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.