South Dakota 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 South Dakota Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 South Dakota Governor forecast currently gives Republican Larry Rhoden a 97.7% chance of defeating Democrat Dan Ahlers. Pollsmax projects Rhoden to receive 59.7% of the vote compared with 40.4% for Ahlers, a projected Republican margin of 19.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 South Dakota governor election features Democrat Dan Ahlers and Republican Larry Rhoden. Incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden is seeking election to a full term, having served as governor since 2025. In 2024, Donald Trump won South Dakota by 29.2%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. The race will test whether Ahlers can build any statewide Democratic momentum or whether Rhoden can keep South Dakota firmly in the GOP column. South Dakota is expected to remain safely Republican on the 2026 governor map.