South Dakota 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 South Dakota Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 South Dakota Governor forecast currently gives Republican Larry Rhoden a 96% chance of defeating Democrat Dan Ahlers. Pollsmax projects Rhoden to receive 59.4% of the vote compared with 40.7% for Ahlers, a projected Republican margin of 18.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 South Dakota governor election features Democrat Dan Ahlers and Republican Larry Rhoden. Incumbent governor Larry Rhoden is seeking reelection to a first term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2025. In 2024, Donald Trump won South Dakota by 29.2%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. South Dakota voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.