South Dakota 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 South Dakota Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for South Dakota's Governor election between Democrat Dan Ahlers and Republican Larry Rhoden. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 South Dakota governor election features Democrat Dan Ahlers and Republican Larry Rhoden. Incumbent governor Larry Rhoden is seeking reelection to a first term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2025. In 2024, Donald Trump won South Dakota by 29.2%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. South Dakota voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- South Dakota
- Democratic candidate
- Dan Ahlers
- Republican candidate
- Larry Rhoden
- Incumbent / open seat
- Larry Rhoden
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 40.5% D / 59.6% R
- Projected margin
- R +19.1
- Forecast odds
- 3.7% D / 96.3% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 16, 2026
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