South Dakota 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 South Dakota Governor Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for South Dakota's Governor election between Democrat Dan Ahlers and Republican Toby Doeden. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 South Dakota governor election features Democrat Dan Ahlers and Republican Toby Doeden. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won South Dakota by 29.2%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. South Dakota has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.