Texas 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

Greg Abbott*

REPUBLICAN

Governor (R-TX)

2015 – Present

2026 Texas Governor Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Texas' Governor election between Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Republican Greg Abbott. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 Texas governor election features Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Republican Greg Abbott. Incumbent governor Greg Abbott is seeking reelection to a fourth term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2015. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas by 13.7%, and Republicans are expected to retain the state's governorship in 2026. Texas voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.

Year: 2026
Race: Governor
State: Texas
Democratic candidate: Gina Hinojosa
Republican candidate: Greg Abbott
Incumbent / open seat: Greg Abbott
Forecast rating: Likely R
Projected vote: 46.0% D / 54.1% R
Projected margin: R +8.1
Forecast odds: 11.0% D / 89.0% R
Forecast last updated: 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
Polling average: 42.5% D / 49.2% R
Polling average margin: R +6.7
Polling last updated: 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
Polls included: 15
Latest poll: New York Times / Siena College — June 27, 2026