Texas 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Texas Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas Governor forecast currently gives Republican Greg Abbott a 84.2% chance of defeating Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Pollsmax projects Abbott to receive 53.3% of the vote compared with 46.8% for Hinojosa, a projected Republican margin of 6.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas governor election features Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Republican Greg Abbott. Incumbent governor Greg Abbott is seeking reelection to a fourth term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2015. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas by 13.7%, and Republicans are expected to retain the state's governorship in 2026. Texas voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.