Texas 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Texas Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas Governor forecast currently gives Republican Greg Abbott a 78.2% chance of defeating Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Pollsmax projects Abbott to receive 52.5% of the vote compared with 47.5% for Hinojosa, a projected Republican margin of 5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas governor election features Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Republican Greg Abbott. Incumbent Governor Greg Abbott is seeking reelection to a fourth term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2015. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas by 13.7%, and Republicans are favored to retain the state's governorship in 2026. The race will test whether Hinojosa can make Texas more competitive for Democrats or whether Abbott can win another term in a state that continues to lean Republican. Texas remains one of the largest and most expensive governor races on the 2026 map.