Arkansas 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Arkansas Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Arkansas Senate forecast currently gives Republican Tom Cotton a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Hallie Shoffner. Pollsmax projects Cotton to receive 66.4% of the vote compared with 33.7% for Shoffner, a projected Republican margin of 32.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Arkansas Senate election features Democrat Hallie Shoffner and Republican Tom Cotton. Incumbent senator Tom Cotton is seeking reelection to a third term, having served in the US Senate since 2015. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arkansas by 30.6%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.