DEMOCRATIC
Farmer
Arkansas 2026 SENATE FORECAST
REPUBLICAN
US Senate (R-AR)
2015 – Present
2026 Arkansas Senate Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Arkansas' Senate election between Democrat Hallie Shoffner and Republican Tom Cotton. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- Arkansas
- Democratic candidate
- Hallie Shoffner
- Republican candidate
- Tom Cotton
- Incumbent / open seat
- Tom Cotton
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 32.9% D / 67.1% R
- Projected margin
- R +34.2
- Forecast odds
- 0.2% D / 99.8% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on June 24, 2026
- Polling average
- 38.0% D / 56.0% R
- Polling average margin
- R +18.0
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on June 24, 2026
- Polls included
- 1
- Latest poll
- GrayHouse (R) — February 9, 2026