Arkansas 2026 SENATE FORECAST
2026 Arkansas Senate Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Arkansas' Senate election between Democrat Hallie Shoffner and Republican Tom Cotton. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Arkansas Senate election features Democrat Hallie Shoffner and Republican Tom Cotton. Incumbent senator Tom Cotton is seeking reelection to a third term, having served in the US Senate since 2015. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arkansas by 30.6%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- Arkansas
- Democratic candidate
- Hallie Shoffner
- Republican candidate
- Tom Cotton
- Incumbent / open seat
- Tom Cotton
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 33.5% D / 66.6% R
- Projected margin
- R +33.1
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 10, 2026
- Polling average
- 40.1% D / 50.3% R
- Polling average margin
- R +10.2
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 10, 2026
- Polls included
- 2
- Latest poll
- 2040 Strategy Group (D) — July 25, 2026